目前,在世界各地陆续发现的首例患者中,有不少发生在武汉首例确诊之前。所以,问题来了,第一例在哪呢?究竟是什么时候开始传播的?
在欧洲首次出现确诊病例的近一个月前,一名42岁的鱼贩出现在巴黎郊区的一家医院,症状是咳嗽、发烧、呼吸困难。后来他的新冠病毒检测呈阳性。这起案例出现于2019年12月27日。
Hoover senior fellow at Stanford University Victor Davis Hanson also pointed to reports of last fall's flu season that he believes may have been the coronavirus, then unbeknownst to doctors.
同样在11月,美国新泽西州贝尔维尔市市长迈克尔•梅勒姆病倒了。他最近公开分享了他的患病经历,表示他当时的症状与新冠肺炎症状一致。之后梅勒姆的新冠病毒抗体检测呈阳性,这进一步证实了他的猜想。而此时是在美国报告首例确诊病例之前两个多月。
流程编辑:tf019
Also in November, the mayor of Belleville, New Jersey, Michael Melham fell sick. He recently shared his experience publicly, saying that the symptoms he exhibited at the time were that of COVID-19. That's over two months before the first confirmed case was reported in the U.S... Melham has tested positive for coronavirus antibodies, further reinforcing his belief.
Let's take a look at some interesting cases outside China.
赵立坚表示,第73届世界卫生大会于5月19日协商一致通过了新冠疫情决议,中方表示欢迎。决议明确认可和支持世卫组织发挥关键领导作用,呼吁会员国防止歧视和污名化做法,打击错误、虚假信息,在研发诊断工具、诊疗方法、药物及疫苗、病毒动物源头等领域加强合作,并适时对世卫组织应对疫情工作进行评估,这些均符合中方立场主张,也是国际社会绝大多数国家的共同愿望,因此中国不仅参加了协商一致,而且同140多个国家一道,是这个决议草案的共同提案国。
关于病毒溯源问题,决议基本参照5月1日《国际卫生条例》突发事件委员会建议的措辞,将溯源研究范围严格限定在查找动物来源、中间宿主和传播途径,目的是为了国际社会未来更好地应对疫情,这也是世卫组织和谭德赛总干事提出的建议。的确,有个别国家在磋商中要求将病毒溯源作为优先事项,但绝大多数国家认为当前重点是疫情防控,不赞成将病毒溯源作为优先事项,拒绝了有关措辞。这说明将溯源问题政治化根本没有市场。
But the first suspected case of a COVID-19 infection in France could date even further back in time. Doctor Michel Schmitt, head of the medical imaging department at the Albert Schweitzer hospital in east France's Colmar, reviewed 2,456 chest scans performed between November 1, 2019, and April 30, 2020. According to the retrospective study, the first COVID-19 infections were identified on November 16 last year at the hospital.
让我们回溯一下那些发生在中国以外的一些早期病例。
我们再来回顾一下这张地图,在中国确诊首例新冠肺炎病例之前,其它国家已经有了类似的确诊病例。新冠病毒到底是起源于何时?第一例案例到底在哪里出现?这个问题需要科学来验证,但也许我们永远都找不到答案。甚至有些全球范围内流行的传染病,比如艾滋病和甲型H1N1流感,至今都没有找到确切的来源。全世界人民团结起来共同抗疫,可能是我们面对这场疫情能做的唯一正确选择。
Researchers at the University College London Genetics Institute have published a study titled "Emergence of genomic diversity and recurrent mutations in SARS-CoV-2" and said that the pandemic started between October 6, 2019 and December 11, 2019, which corresponds to the time the virus jumped from an animal host to humans.
金奇表示,从1918年大流感、艾滋病到2009年暴发的H1N1,都还没有找到“零号病人”,这确实是个很难的问题,也需要科学界不断给出解答的问题。
圣克拉拉卫生局长莎拉•科迪表示其中两名患者都没有出国到过疫情热点地区。科迪认为,新冠病毒早在1月份就已经在旧金山湾区传播了。由于当时正值流感季,新冠肺炎患者很有可能会被误认为死于流感。
在国务院新闻办4月27日举行的吹风会上,中国医学科学院病原生物学研究所所长金奇在回应有关新冠肺炎“零号病人”的问题时表示,追溯“零号病人”是一个非常难的科学问题,需要进行多学科交叉的大量工作。
Nearly a month before the first officially recorded cases in Europe, a 42-year-old fishmonger showed up at a hospital in suburban Paris coughing, with a fever and having a hard time breathing. He was later tested positive for the coronavirus. It was December 27, 2019.
Following the global outbreak of COVID-19, most of the media's attention has been focused on the development after the first confirmed case of the disease in China. Please note that I refer to the first "confirmed" case, not the first case.
Recent reports indicate that COVID-19 was found in many countries before it was first reported in China. So, here is the question, where is the first case? When did it begin to spread?
但是在法国,第一起疑似病例可能要追溯到更久以前。位于法国东部城市科尔马的阿尔贝•施韦泽医院发表公告称,该院医学影像部负责人施密特重新研究了去年11月1日到今年4月30日拍摄的所有胸片底片,总计2456张。研究发现,最早出现带有典型新冠肺炎症状的病例可追溯到去年11月16日。
斯坦福大学胡佛研究院高级研究员维克托•戴维斯•汉森也指出,去年流感季节早期的报道案例,他认为可能是新冠病毒引起的,只不过医生当时并不知道罢了。
新冠肺炎疫情发展到今天,媒体的视线大多聚焦在中国武汉的第一例确诊病例之后。注意,我说的第一例“确诊”病例,而不是真正的第一例感染。
The county's chief medical officer, Dr. Sara Cody, said two of the individuals had no travel history that would have exposed them to the virus. Cody expressed belief that the novel coronavirus was circulating in the San Francisco Bay Area as early as January. The two deaths may have been written off as flu because there were significant numbers of influenza cases at the time.
据澎湃新闻,5月20日,外交部发言人赵立坚主持例行记者会。有记者提问,第七十三届世界卫生大会通过了欧盟提出的应对新冠疫情决议,中方对此有何评论?中方为何参加共同提案国?

伦敦大学学院遗传学研究所的研究人员发表了一项题为“SARS-CoV-2的基因组多样性和复发性突变的出现”的论文,该研究发现,新冠病毒在2019年10月6日至2019年12月11日期间,或已在全球迅速传播,并且仍在反复发生突变以不断适应其人类宿主。
美国北加州圣克拉拉公共卫生部公布三例死于新冠肺炎的病例,其中最早死亡时间为2020年2月6号,这比此前美国宣布的首例新冠肺炎死亡病例早了23天,此前认定的第一个死亡病例是在华盛顿州柯克兰,死于2月29日。
中方希望世卫大会刚刚通过的这个决议能够得到全面和准确的贯彻。至于个别媒体造谣说中方“被迫”参加决议共同提案国,这完全是无稽之谈。事实是,中国同大多数国家一道,坚决打掉了个别国家将溯源和评估问题政治化的企图,确保了决议的客观公正,在这个情况下,我们主动参加了决议的共同提案国。我们奉劝个别国家,不要再编造谎言,为自己的失败寻找借口了。
关于对世卫组织进行评估问题,决议提出,评估由世卫组织总干事同会员国协商后进行,目的是审议世卫组织应对疫情的经验,并提出未来工作建议。世卫组织曾对甲型H1N1流感和埃博拉应对工作进行评估,这是世卫组织在每次应对重大疫情后的惯常做法。决议要求评估进程是逐步、公正、独立、全面的,这四个词十分重要,意味着评估不能被少数国家所垄断。
In the U.S., the County of Santa Clara Medical Examiner-Coroner identified three deaths with COVID-19 on February 6. That's 23 days before the country announced its first fatality from the virus in Kirkland, Washington, on February 29.
Let's look at this map again. Before China's first confirmed COVID-19 case, similar infections had already been detected in other countries -- – even before the disease came to be known by its current name. So, when did the novel coronavirus originate? Where did the first case appear? Science has the key to a satisfactory answer. And maybe, just maybe, we'll never get to the bottom of things. Even the first cases of some worldwide infectious diseases, such as AIDS and Influenza A virus have yet to find their sources. People around the world uniting to fight against the pandemic could be the only right thing to do right now in the face of the virus.
中国疾病预防控制中心专家刘培培当日也提到,追溯“零号病人”的头绪很多,很多人体内已经存在阳性抗体,很难明确感染事件。此外,“零号病人”也可能是无症状感染者,没有就诊记录可查,这也增加了追溯难度。刘培培表示,不仅中国,各国也需要追溯本国的“零号病人”,希望各国能够携手开展相关工作。
